Stochastic Cycles in Var Processes
نویسندگان
چکیده
MASSIMO FRANCHI AND PAOLO PARUOLO PRELIMINARY VERSION Abstract. This paper presents an additive decomposition of the moving average representation of VAR processes into cyclical components. We give a de nition of cyclical component that encompasses seasonal components as well as (stationary) long-run and short-run uctuations. Each cyclical component is univariate and is characterized by a spectrum with peak at a given spectral frequency. The representation is unique and it provides explicit formulae for the the (dynamic) loadings of the variables onto the di erent cyclical components. We discuss relations with existing de nitions of stochastic cycles. Finally we discuss how to obtain cancelations of the cyclical components by linear combinations and/or by ltering of the observed series.
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تاریخ انتشار 2009